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Wavelet theory and its applications in economics and finance

机译:小波理论及其在经济金融中的应用

摘要

Wavelets orthogonally decompose data into different frequency components, and the temporal and frequency information of the data could be studied simultaneously. This analysis belongs within local nature analysis. Wavelets are therefore useful for managing time-varying characteristics found in most real-world time series and are an ideal tool for studying non-stationary or transient time series while avoiding the assumption of stationarity. Given the promising properties of wavelets, this thesis thoroughly discusses wavelet theory and adds three new applications of wavelets in economic and financial fields, providing new insights into three interesting phenomena. The second chapter introduces wavelet theory in detail and presents a thorough survey of the economic and financial applications of wavelets. In the third chapter, wavelets are applied in time series to extract business cycles or trend. They are useful for capturing the changing volatility of business cycles. The extracted business cycles and trend are linearly independent. We provide detailed comparisons with four alternative filters, including two of each detrending filters and bandpass filters. The result shows that wavelets are a good alternative filter for extracting business cycles or trend based on multiresolution wavelet analysis.\udThe fourth chapter distinguishes contagion and interdependence. To achieve this purpose, we define contagion as a significant increase in short-run market commovement after a shock to one market. Following the application of wavelets to 27 global representative markets’ daily stock-return data series from 1996.1 to 1997.12, a multivariate GARCH model and a Granger-causality methodology are used on the results of wavelets to generate short-run pair-wise contemporaneous correlations and lead-lag relationships, respectively, both of which are involved in short-run relationships. The empirical evidence reveals no significant increase in interdependence during the financial crisis; contagion is just an illusion of interdependence. In addition, the evidence explains the phenomenon in which major negative events in global markets began to occur one month after the outbreak of the crisis. The view that contagion is regional is not supported.\udThe fifth chapter studies how macroeconomic news announcements affect the U.S. stock market and how market participants’ responses to announcements vary over the business cycle. The arrival of scheduled macroeconomic announcements in the U.S. stock market leads to a two-stage adjustment process for prices and trading transactions. In a short first stage, the release of a news announcement induces a sharp and nearly instantaneous price change along with a rise in trading transactions.\udIn a prolonged second stage, it causes significant and persistent increases in price volatility and trading transactions within about an hour. After allowing for different stages of the business cycle, we demonstrate that the release of a news announcement induces larger immediate price changes per interval in the expansion period, but more immediate price changes per interval in the contraction period, from the old equilibrium to the approximate new equilibrium. It costs smaller subsequent adjustments of stock prices along with a lower number of trading transactions across a shorter time in the contraction period, when the information contained in the news announcement is incorporated fully in stock prices. We use a static analysis to investigate the immediate effects of news announcements, as measured by the surprise in the news, on prices, and adopt a wavelet analysis to examine their eventual effects on prices. The evidence shows that only 6 out of 17 announcements have a significant immediate impact, but all announcements have an eventual impact over different time periods. The combination of the results of both analyses gives us the time-profile of each news announcement’s impact on stock prices, and shows that the impact is significant within about an hour, but is exhausted after a day.
机译:小波将数据正交分解为不同的频率分量,并且可以同时研究数据的时间和频率信息。该分析属于局部自然分析。因此,小波可用于管理大多数现实世界时间序列中的时变特性,并且是研究非平稳或瞬态时间序列同时避免平稳性假设的理想工具。鉴于小波的良好前景,本文全面讨论了小波理论,并增加了小波在经济和金融领域的三个新应用,为三个有趣的现象提供了新的见解。第二章详细介绍了小波理论,并对小波的经济和金融应用进行了全面的概述。在第三章中,将小波应用于时间序列以提取业务周期或趋势。它们对于捕获业务周期不断变化的波动很有用。提取的业务周期和趋势是线性独立的。我们提供了四个替代滤波器的详细比较,包括每个去趋势滤波器和带通滤波器中的两个。结果表明,小波是基于多分辨率小波分析提取业务周期或趋势的良好替代过滤器。\ ud第四章区分了传染性和相互依赖性。为了达到这个目的,我们将传染性定义为对一个市场造成冲击后短期市场动荡的显着增加。在将小波应用于1996.1至1997.12期间的27个全球代表性市场的每日股票收益数据系列之后,对小波的结果使用了多元GARCH模型和Granger因果方法,以生成短期成对的同期相关性和超前-滞后关系,两者都涉及短期关系。经验证据表明,在金融危机期间相互依存度没有显着增加。传染只是相互依存的错觉。此外,证据还解释了在危机爆发后一个月内全球市场出现重大负面事件的现象。 \ ud第五章研究了宏观经济新闻公告如何影响美国股市以及市场参与者对公告的响应在整个商业周期中如何变化。预定的宏观经济公告在美国股票市场的到来导致价格和交易交易的两阶段调整过程。在很短的第一阶段,发布新闻公告会导致急剧的,几乎是瞬时的价格变化以及交易交易的增加。\ ud在第二阶段的较长时间内,它会导致价格波动和交易交易在大约一个月内持续且显着增加。小时。在考虑了业务周期的不同阶段之后,我们证明了发布新闻公告会导致在扩张期内每个区间的较大即时价格变化,但在收缩期内,从旧均衡到近似区间,每个区间的即时价格变化更大。新的平衡。当新闻公告中包含的信息完全包含在股价中时,它会减少随后的股价调整幅度,并在较短的时间内减少交易量。我们使用静态分析来调查新闻公告的即时影响(通过新闻的意外程度来衡量)对价格的影响,并采用小波分析来检查其最终对价格的影响。证据表明,在17个公告中,只有6个具有重大的即刻影响,但所有公告在不同时间段都有最终影响。两种分析结果的结合为我们提供了每则新闻公告对股票价格影响的时间分布图,并显示该影响​​在大约一个小时内就很明显,但一天后就已耗尽。

著录项

  • 作者

    Lai, Wenlong;

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  • 年度 2015
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 {"code":"en","name":"English","id":9}
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